Decent gold trade, my stops are all moved down now with a nice profit locked in. I was up about $1300 a contract when I woke up at 5am but now its closer to $1000 per. Hopefully when the market opens up later it will continue down and break through the little demand area around 1191.4 shown as active and bright green on my 30M chart. That area could turn it before it reaches my target below and since its Thursday I am looking for an exit unless it drops down past it. If it moves past that technical area I will hold it over the weekend and hedge it tomorrow according to my plan.
LTF Daily chart: showing down trend since April where we topped out around $1370. It also shows some new demand (blue line) and some older demand just below from 2017. Not a recommendation or solicitation: I will look to those areas for a market reversal possibly and take a few shots when price reaches them as counter trend trades. I was not kidding when I said in class that I will buy some physical gold down on those areas as well. Its been a long time since gold has fallen this low and many of us where trading actively when it was $1900 an ounce years ago (that was awesome). I am not a huge bear, but I do anticipate a major correction at some point (if not an outright crash) and hedging not just with Gold but other assets like options and currency is just good financial planning/risk management.
STF 30M Chart: You can see the 1st target where I will take off 75% of my contracts and leave the final 25% to run a little lower if it gets there. You can also see the ruler feature I used to measure my risk vs reward in the black boxes (I know we have talked about that some Raj & Paul). I also have pretty tight stops already so it may not make it down there. There really is no planned news risk for me today, but tomorrow at 10am The FED speech from Powell requires a little distance for me, so most likely outcome will be an exit later today.
NOTES: (Paul) this was not really a true "level on a level" entry because the zones were still separate on the higher time frame charts. They were still close enough for me to take both zones, even though price just bounced right off the 30M zone back in the direction of the LTF trend. By the way we talked about this potential setup on Tuesday in class if your following you can watch the recording. Gold is an asset for you new traders to be careful with like HG and RTY it has some pretty wild swings. According to the Moore Research Center, inter market correlations (MRCI dot com) for the last 180 trading days it has been inversely trading to the dollar at over -90. To offer some scale most of you have looked at the US index's (NQ, YM, ES etc) on the same chart or at least side by side by now. Well they traded between +88 and +84 on the same scale, so watch out for the dollar if your trading gold. Especially any news that affects the dollar. The emotions of fear and greed are at play BIG TIME in the markets where such tight hedging is possible, just something to keep an eye on. By the way those daily demand levels shown are serious and gold is really low on the LTF charts altitude, so look for a decent bounce and maybe a reversal down there, especially on news related to the dollar.
Good luck to everyone, focus on your plan and your entries- then walk away and let your trade plan work. B
LTF Daily chart: showing down trend since April where we topped out around $1370. It also shows some new demand (blue line) and some older demand just below from 2017. Not a recommendation or solicitation: I will look to those areas for a market reversal possibly and take a few shots when price reaches them as counter trend trades. I was not kidding when I said in class that I will buy some physical gold down on those areas as well. Its been a long time since gold has fallen this low and many of us where trading actively when it was $1900 an ounce years ago (that was awesome). I am not a huge bear, but I do anticipate a major correction at some point (if not an outright crash) and hedging not just with Gold but other assets like options and currency is just good financial planning/risk management.
STF 30M Chart: You can see the 1st target where I will take off 75% of my contracts and leave the final 25% to run a little lower if it gets there. You can also see the ruler feature I used to measure my risk vs reward in the black boxes (I know we have talked about that some Raj & Paul). I also have pretty tight stops already so it may not make it down there. There really is no planned news risk for me today, but tomorrow at 10am The FED speech from Powell requires a little distance for me, so most likely outcome will be an exit later today.
NOTES: (Paul) this was not really a true "level on a level" entry because the zones were still separate on the higher time frame charts. They were still close enough for me to take both zones, even though price just bounced right off the 30M zone back in the direction of the LTF trend. By the way we talked about this potential setup on Tuesday in class if your following you can watch the recording. Gold is an asset for you new traders to be careful with like HG and RTY it has some pretty wild swings. According to the Moore Research Center, inter market correlations (MRCI dot com) for the last 180 trading days it has been inversely trading to the dollar at over -90. To offer some scale most of you have looked at the US index's (NQ, YM, ES etc) on the same chart or at least side by side by now. Well they traded between +88 and +84 on the same scale, so watch out for the dollar if your trading gold. Especially any news that affects the dollar. The emotions of fear and greed are at play BIG TIME in the markets where such tight hedging is possible, just something to keep an eye on. By the way those daily demand levels shown are serious and gold is really low on the LTF charts altitude, so look for a decent bounce and maybe a reversal down there, especially on news related to the dollar.
Good luck to everyone, focus on your plan and your entries- then walk away and let your trade plan work. B
Nice trading as always my friend! I LOVE how simple you're making it and helping others to see this as well. At the end of the day the large gains will always make us money if we're taking small losses.
Ironically we can live the life we want if we stick to the most basic rules that govern everyday life! Well done
Ironically we can live the life we want if we stick to the most basic rules that govern everyday life! Well done
- BillPrivate
- 2 years ago
- #552
Thanks, Will, agree with you 100%. God bless you, have a good weekend! B
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I closed this Gold trade out for about $1500 a contract last night at the Asian open when my tightened stops got taken out. I planned the exit for three main reasons and my logic is described below:
News: today (Friday 8/24) we have Core Goods @ 8:30am, and a FED Powell speech @10AM. As far as news releases go neither may make much of an impact. FED speeches do not typically have as much of an impact as some of their other minutes/meetings etc. However, in the Trump era with all the banter back and forth and manufactured crises that seem to happen everyday I tread carefully around the news. Probably costs me some fills and some profits occasionally, but it definitely saves me from major losses and slippage and I am cool with that. I love to watch the news from the sidelines!
Weekend: I also do not hold futures contracts as swing trades over the weekend unless there is plenty of distance between my stops and price. This Gold trade is right on the verge of that cusp for me and I could have worked out a hedge plan but instead I stuck to mine and ignored my greed emotion.
Weekly Chart Picture: This is one of those times a look at a third time frame paid off. I used the Daily as my LTF, and 30M as my STF but when examining this trade for a potential longer term swing trade I zoomed out to my weekly chart and as you can see in the attached image we are starting to bounce off that large demand zone. So any demand we see now carries an increased possibility of being a reversal point. That picture coupled with the facts above pointed to a very tight set of stops required before the close yesterday.
Trade Note: It does not always work out this way but this time it did as you can see at the Asian open last night the market formed new demand and is now pushing up towards supply again. It took me a long time to use supply and demand logic to fight the emotions of fear and greed. I hope the newer traders learn to make locking in profits, or exiting when you can see a logical reason the market could turn parts of their own trade plans. Learn to lose money and be alright with it, sure, but also learn how not to lose money as well. Do not worry about moving stops to technical areas, breakeven plus commissions etc. If you use the correct logic to arrive at those decisions you will have improved your win loss ratio and saved some cash!
God bless everybody enjoy your families and the weekend! B
News: today (Friday 8/24) we have Core Goods @ 8:30am, and a FED Powell speech @10AM. As far as news releases go neither may make much of an impact. FED speeches do not typically have as much of an impact as some of their other minutes/meetings etc. However, in the Trump era with all the banter back and forth and manufactured crises that seem to happen everyday I tread carefully around the news. Probably costs me some fills and some profits occasionally, but it definitely saves me from major losses and slippage and I am cool with that. I love to watch the news from the sidelines!
Weekend: I also do not hold futures contracts as swing trades over the weekend unless there is plenty of distance between my stops and price. This Gold trade is right on the verge of that cusp for me and I could have worked out a hedge plan but instead I stuck to mine and ignored my greed emotion.
Weekly Chart Picture: This is one of those times a look at a third time frame paid off. I used the Daily as my LTF, and 30M as my STF but when examining this trade for a potential longer term swing trade I zoomed out to my weekly chart and as you can see in the attached image we are starting to bounce off that large demand zone. So any demand we see now carries an increased possibility of being a reversal point. That picture coupled with the facts above pointed to a very tight set of stops required before the close yesterday.
Trade Note: It does not always work out this way but this time it did as you can see at the Asian open last night the market formed new demand and is now pushing up towards supply again. It took me a long time to use supply and demand logic to fight the emotions of fear and greed. I hope the newer traders learn to make locking in profits, or exiting when you can see a logical reason the market could turn parts of their own trade plans. Learn to lose money and be alright with it, sure, but also learn how not to lose money as well. Do not worry about moving stops to technical areas, breakeven plus commissions etc. If you use the correct logic to arrive at those decisions you will have improved your win loss ratio and saved some cash!
God bless everybody enjoy your families and the weekend! B
- BillPrivate
- 2 years ago
- #554
We will see, if it drops from this supply zone and the bottom falls out I may take rest of day off, lol! Have a good weekend Will, B
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Well I don't have to worry about missed profits lol, but I still took the day off. The fed news spiked the market all the way back up past the original supply as news meets weekly demand on the attached chart. Turned out my crystal ball was working after all.
From Forexfactory news feed:
"Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Friday he expects a slow but steady diet of interest rate increases to continue as the central bank looks to find the right recipe between promoting growth and controlling excesses. In his closely watched speech at the Fed's annual Jackson Hole, Wyoming retreat, Powell expressed confidence in the economy and said he does not see inflation getting out of hand." Don't know how many of you are using the economic calendar at forexfactory dot com but there is a really funny dialogue about this news event if you click on in under your news feeds.
Plan your trades and trade that plan! Have a good weekend everyone, B
From Forexfactory news feed:
"Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Friday he expects a slow but steady diet of interest rate increases to continue as the central bank looks to find the right recipe between promoting growth and controlling excesses. In his closely watched speech at the Fed's annual Jackson Hole, Wyoming retreat, Powell expressed confidence in the economy and said he does not see inflation getting out of hand." Don't know how many of you are using the economic calendar at forexfactory dot com but there is a really funny dialogue about this news event if you click on in under your news feeds.
Plan your trades and trade that plan! Have a good weekend everyone, B
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