LTF Daily: The area of supply these past two weeks shorts have come from for me is a well defined supply zone. On the weekly it will all show as one as well as the all time high, on the daily its the sharp drop just under the all time high.
STF 25,000 volume & 30M: This is the time frame that I set my entries and stops on and the image below is from the 30M. I am still playing with the 25K volume that Will turned me on too as well and really like it. I also used an ATM strategy that allows for multiple targets and trailing stops. This is stock ninja trader stuff and can easily be learned if your not familiar with it, no ninja script or coding required.
Result so far: Target 1 hit for $500 and change profit per contract, and my stops had moved down below the new supply that formed on the chart this afternoon. I had originally entered at the old supply from February 2nd so I went ahead and moved them manually back above this new supply. The historical zone is over 6 months old so to me this is a "fresh and active zone" showing new supply. In addition the VR looks really good so I had no issue moving the stops above it for now. I like this area and if we see a pull back to it I want to stay short. I made enough from the 1st target to still turn a profit so I am going to let it ride and see what happens. When I am counter the long term trend, I always front load the first target with most of my contracts because statistically in my trading its the most likely to hit. Plus I only want to leave on a handful for the subsequent longer term swing style trade that is left anyway. Now I may have a swing trade going or may get stopped out we will see what happens and it does not matter.
Note: I have already shorted the LTF zone from my daily twice now, so I wont be surprised if we see a push upwards to the higher time frame supply from the daily next. I wont take this area again and will not short again until we see the area above. I stayed in this one because it looks like there is still room to run to the down side and I was already profitable. Counter trend rules applied: As I mentioned above this trade is counter the strong & long term uptrend so I front loaded the first target, and I am not setting my technical targets as far away I would if these trades were long from the lower altitude demand. In addition if price touches this new supply and then attempts to retest it, or spends a lot of time in it during a high volume time I will exit as well to maximize my profit.
That is about it, thanks again to Will for great analysis and to everyone else sharing on the forum. I only take an average of 2-5 trades a week during the slow months of July and August so not much else to share or offer up for discussion. Just advise everyone to stay patient in this market this time of year. Try to look at a lot of different markets and take only the very best setups, enjoy your families. God bless and good luck, B
